Dimitar Bakardzhiev is an expert in managing successful and cost-effective technology development. With his blend of technical, managerial and operational expertise, he effectively combines the theory and practice of Agile and Kanban Method to deliver business results. As a Lean-Kanban University (LKU)-Accredited Kanban Trainer (AKT), Kanban Coaching Professional (KCP) and avid, expert Kanban practitioner and Brickell Key Award 2015 Finalist, Dimitar puts lean principles to work every day when managing complex software projects. Dimitar has been one of the leading proponents and evangelists of Kanban in his native Bulgaria and has published David Anderson’s Kanban book as well as books on Lean, Theory of Constraints by Goldratt and Deming’s Theory of Management in the local language.
Agile teams commonly apply ‘yesterday’s weather’ to estimate delivery dates and required resources.
Unfortunately, the overall success of this approach is mediocre, at best. Can we do better? Yes, we can!
In this hands-on workshop you will learn practical probabilistic forecasting techniques applied to any flavour of Agile software development for better outcomes. Probabilistic Forecasting uses historical data from the actual delivery history of a team and combines it with probabilistic techniques & Monte Carlo simulations to greatly enhance the reliability of your team’s forecasts.
All techniques are explained by solving real-world problems using hands-on exercises. You will learn how to use concrete tools and knowledge that allow software and IT projects to be rapidly forecasted using historical data when available. Also, how to use range estimates when relevant history isn’t available.
By attending this workshop you will be well-placed to perform probabilistic forecasting. It really is easy, much easier and less stressful than detailed estimates and often more accurate.
If you work in an Agile environment and want to learn how to use historical data for Probabilistic Planning, then this workshop is for you.
YOU WILL LEARN:
– The goals of forecasting, how probabilistic forecasting works and why you need it
– What data should be captured and how it can be used
– Forecasting using story points or number of user stories
– How to answer the three biggest forecasting questions:
– How Big – determining how big is the feature or project with less effort
– How Long – determining how long it would take to deliver a project or feature
– How Much – determining what will fit into a fixed delivery time (e.g. sprint, release, quarter)
– How to use Continuous forecasting to see as early as possible if the reality is going in the same direction as our forecast.
Who this course is for
Forecasting using data will benefit people in the following roles:
– Product Managers
– Product Owners
– Scrum masters
– Agile coaches
– Anyone who currently uses estimates to forecast how long it will take or how big teams need to be to deliver work irrespective of the process used such as Scrum, Kanban, SAFe or combinations.
No specific statistical or mathematical knowledge is needed. This workshop introduces all of the skills needed to perform forecasts without complex statistics or mathematics. Bring a laptop, that has Excel installed, to follow along, or just watch me or your colleagues.
Audience Level: Practicing
Equipment: Participants should carry their laptops with MS Excel installed.
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